Two for me, one for you
They released new election result numbers in the Portland City Council races yesterday afternoon. Some in the mainstream media are acting like most of the races are too close to call, but the same 12 people have won in each of the four runs of the results since Tuesday night. I listed those winners yesterday, here. The list hasn't changed at all.
It is a motley crew and not all a good sign for Portland. But more on that later.
For now, I wanted to note that one of the scenarios I highlighted yesterday came out a little differently in the latest batch of "rank choice" counting. My point yesterday was that the top three first-choice vote getters had wound up winning all the seats in the tallies up to that point, and in that sense, nobody's "rank choices" really mattered. But in the latest count, that's not true as to one of the 12 races.
In the latest count for District 4, the west side plus some hostage neighborhoods in inner southeast, Eli Arnold actually finished in third place, slightly ahead of Eric Zimmerman, in the first round, when only people's first choices are looked at. Arnold's lead in that round was a mere 72 votes, but he did get out of the gate ahead of Zimmerman, in fourth place.
But top vote-getter Olivia Clark reached the 25 percent winning threshold right off the bat, and in the crazy game show brought to us by the charter commission, her "surplus" votes immediately got divvied up among her fans' second choices. In that allocation, Zimmerman picked up about 239 votes; Arnold got only about 50. From that point on, through all of the rounds, Zimmerman stayed, and finished, ahead.
So is it close in District 4? As far as I can tell, when it came down to the end of the latest Rube Goldberg tally, Zimmerman finished ahead of Arnold by 1003 votes. The day before, his lead was 1109, and on Wednesday it was 1111. And so I doubt that Arnold can overcome it. But with the "rank choice" business, no one is willing to call the race at this point. They start the goofball process over from scratch every time they count, and so people are nervous about drawing conclusions until it's officially over.
Supposedly we'll get more numbers today. I can't seem to find anywhere how many ballots they think are left. Citywide, it appears they've been processing maybe 30,000 a day on average.
I think the election results are just a rearranging of the deck chairs. Different people, same dreams. More growth in city/county payrolls. Pragmatism gets ignored.
ReplyDeleteMaybe it should be a requirement that the top 3 “finishers” in each district and their innumerable support staffs be required to live downtown within walking distance of their innumerable offices during the week.
ReplyDeleteThis would make downtown look busy during working hours and “revitalize” the downtown core.
I know you said this as a jab at the system. But, I think it makes sense.
DeleteThere is no reason that the fanatics on the charter commission had to go to the expensive, confusing, creepy rank choice and stick with three per council district (better known as the "Give Candace a $133,000 a Year" measure). Simply run three separate first-past-the-post votes. Candidates sign up to run in District 1, Position A, B, or C. Simple. And you'll wind up knowing who's got a mandate and who had one provided by the computer.
ReplyDeleteLocal dinosaur media will try to convince us that robo-elections work, but then media types are really bad at reading spreadsheets.
How many of the kids on the charter commission got elected? You inflict this absurdly chaotic system on an already exhausted citizenry, you gobble up public money to run your campaign, you get 18% of a low turnout vote and ….presto……$133,000 plus gold plated benefits on day one. Portland “the city that works”…..
ReplyDeletePortland City politics is a microcosm of the national political landscape. Portland has been run into the ground by incompetent and corrupt liberal politicians And the people (again liberals) are shocked, SHOCKED! that there’s gambling…oops I meant incompetence in Portland governance. But don’t worry, when Portland goes a few more swirls around the toilet bowl, change will finally happen, just like at the national level.
ReplyDeleteNot soon enough.
DeleteAs a Westmoreland resident, I laughed out loud at “plus some hostage neighborhoods in inner southeast.” I didn’t double check this for myself, but Tony Morse campaigned around here and told me that only he and one other on the District 4 list were from the east side.
ReplyDelete