Not looking too good for change

It's the morning after the election, and a couple of decent things have happened in Portland. Mikey Schmidt got his walking papers as Multnomah County district attorney; he's got 224 days left in office. Maybe he will emulate his predecessor and pack it in early; one can hope. And Maxine Dexter trounced Sushi Jayapal for Earl the Pearl's seat in Congress, which as far as I can tell puts Jayapal out of work.

But that's about all the encouraging news I've got in the election results. All the tax measures passed, which means more gas tax for bike toys, more high rents to complain about, mid-nine-figures more pork for Metro. And now, a new flood control tax. That whooshing sound you're hearing is the smart people with money running for Clark County, Washington. 

Probably the most depressing results are in the Multnomah County commission races. The two main change agents, Vadim Mozyrsky and Jessie Burke, did not do well. Mozyrsky seems to have made it to a runoff with Meghan Moyer on the west side, but he's trailing by about 1,000 out of 33,000, which doesn't bode well for November. Meanwhile, Burke is desperately trying to edge out ex-Mayor Sam Adams for a runoff spot against Shannon Singleton on the inner east side. Singleton, the face of the status quo, got 43 percent of the vote. Incredible. Incredibly bad.

Julia Brim-Edwards, a moderate incumbent, won re-election outright. Which is mildly good.

Way out east, there'll probably be a runoff between Vince Jones-Dixon, who looks like the same-as-it-ever-was, and a guy named Brian Knotts, who would clearly shake things up. But Jones-Dixon's ahead by about 1200 out of 19,000, and that means he's the clear favorite in the general election.

So do the math. In order to get anywhere with Jessica Chevy-Vega as chair, you need three sane people on the county board. Currently there are only two, one of whom is Brim-Edwards and the other of whom is term-limited out. 

In the three races besides JBE's, none of which have been decided yet, I don't see two sane people winning in November. I assume that Knotts is not going to beat Jones-Dixon. So you would need Mozy to beat Moyer, and he just can't seem to get quite enough traction with voters. And on top of that, you would need either Burke or Adams to beat Singleton in the runoff. I don't think Adams can win that matchup, and even if he did, in order to improve things at the county he would need to not be a jerk once he gets sworn in (also questionable). 

If Burke somehow makes up the 278-vote gap between herself and Adams, she'd then have to beat Singleton, who's obviously got a lot of support. It's possible – 57 percent of the voters said no to Singleton – but it would be a tough battle, and first Burke has to get past Creepy Sam.

And of course, November's going to be crazy, with the unprecedented full-tilt Portland mayor and City Council clown show, plus the return of Orange Caligula. The county commission races probably will get drowned out in the cacophony. But come January, I expect that not much will change at the county level. Which is really too bad.

UPDATE, 5:45 p.m.: New numbers! But the same outlook, here.