I think Perez has defeated Trumpy Joe

The Congressional race in Vancouver, Washington and surroundings has turned out to be quite a pleasant surprise. Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is leading Republican Joe Kent by 11,123 votes as we head into the second day of vote counting. That's a lead of 52.6 percent to 46.8 percent.

There are still many votes left to be tallied in that district, the Washington Third, but looking at the numbers, I don't see a way that Kent can pull out a win. The biggest batches of remaining votes to be counted are in Clark, Cowlitz, Lewis, and Skamania Counties, in that order. If you look at the numbers that those four counties are showing as Tuesday turns into Wednesday, the signs point toward Perez increasing, not losing, her lead.

Now, as far as I can tell, the numbers I'm about to discuss do not include ballots that were mailed on Monday or yesterday but have not yet been delivered to the elections offices at the various counties in the district. It's possible, I suppose, that a lot of Trumpies waited until Election Day to pop their ballots into the mail, in which case they may yet work a miracle for their local hero. But barring a major coup in that department, I don't think Kent can win.

Okay, on to the number-crunching.

Clark County says it has about 80,000 more votes to count. Perez is ahead in that county by 17.6 percent. If she holds that percentage, she will add about 14,000 more votes to her lead. Even if she gets only 10 percent more of the remaining votes than Kent does, that's an 8,000 increase to her advantage, putting her 19,000 votes ahead.

And even if she splits the remaining votes in Clark County evenly with Kent, it still seems unlikely that he'll make up his current 11,000-vote deficit with the rest of the uncounted votes in the district.

Cowlitz County says it has about 6300 more votes to count. Kent is ahead there by 3.7 percent. Even if he bumps that to 6 percent of the late tally, he gains only 378 votes. Make it 10 percent and it's only 630.

Kent has a whopping 34.2 prercent lead in Lewis County, but they say there are only 5554 more votes to count there. Even if Kent gets 40 percent more of them than Perez does, he cuts her lead by only 2222.

In Skamania, they say there are 4923 ballots left to count. Kent is ahead there by 3.9 percent. Even if you make it 10 percent of the remaining votes, that's only a decrease in Perez's lead of 492.

There are a few more votes hanging around in three other counties, but Kent would need all of them, and then some, and he isn't going to get that many. The New York Times says he's likely to win, but at this hour my money would be on his opponent.

Perez's apparent win is completely unexpected to me, but gratifying, to be sure. Joe was too Trumpy for the newly reconfigured district, and from all appearances, Jamie's seat has flipped to blue. Well, I'll be a monkey's uncle.

Now Kent will have time to spend writing his book, and straightening out his taxes.