Where the action is

There was an interesting essay in the New York Times over the weekend by a couple of doctors, one of whom is right here in Portland. Their point was that in the present landscape of the Covid pandemic, it makes more sense to look at hospitalization numbers than at positive test numbers. With vaccines widely available in this country, and oral treatments in the wings, there should be more and more cases coming along that aren't deadly serious.

Some policymakers may be wary of not using case numbers as the primary metric to guide public behavior and policy. As cases become more complex, however, health departments should still monitor infection numbers, but guidance should be tied to hospitalization metrics. When rising cases do not reliably predict hospitalization surges, hitching Covid policies to cases alone is no longer effective policy — or good public health.

As readers here know, I've always considered hospitalization figures more meaningful than new case numbers. New case figures depend on frequency of testing, and that's not a constant. 

Anyway, here are the hospitalization and intensive care curves for Oregon to date. As you can see, we are better off than we were at this time last year, when the winter surge was at its worst. But we've kind of flattened out lately, and we've been in better shape than we are now for a lot of the ordeal. Before late summer 2021 sent our numbers through the roof, that is.

Let's hope that these curves resume heading downward again soon. It's a grim fact that 1 out of every 100 Americans over the age of 65 has died from this thing.